Forecasting a quake in Christchurch is like picking the Melbourne Cup will be won by a horse

Christchurch rocks, as they say.

At least one tremor every day, it seems. Must have a chat with Gerry Brownlee to check if this is correct, although Gerry has become somewhat prone to keeping some bits of information strictly confidential these days.

Anyway, a shake every day or so makes it a bit of a doddle to predict on which day the city will be shaken.

Hence Alf is by no means impressed with the claims of moon man Ken Ring to have picked the earthquake which struck the city last Monday.

Ring was not alone, the Herald on Sunday tells us: a mystery Australian forecaster, known as the Barcaroller, also tipped it ahead of time.

But it’s The Moon Man who fascinates Alf.

Ring, who recently claimed he was going into hiding because of death threats over his quake predictions, made his latest pronouncement last Saturday, on his regular slot on RadioLive’s fishing show.

“I’m still expecting a bit of earthquake risk around, or on, Monday to come from that in the Christchurch to Wellington region, plus or minus a day or so,” Ring said on air.

He is reported to have gone on to explain to the HoS he had simply been picking up on the ramifications of weather patterns and he was not back in the game of forecasting what was going to happen to Christchurch.

“I just mentioned it as a global thing and whatever happened globally, if Christchurch is in the gun then it’s going to show up where the pattern is operating,” Ring said.

Dunno what to make of that statement. It looks suspiciously like nonsense.

He went on:

“But specifically, no I’m not predicting earthquakes in Christchurch via the media until the environment is better for me to do so.”

So he did he make a forecast ? Or didn’t he?

A better environment for Christchurch people, of course, would be one without earthquakes.

Alf is forecasting that stability will be restored one day.

He looks forward to hearing The Moon Man’s prediction of the next earthquake when that stability has been restored and the city is no longer shaking every day or so.

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